Severe Weather Threat Across the South: Damaging Winds, Large Hail & Tornadoes Likely
The start of meteorological spring brings with it a serious severe-weather threat across the South from Thursday through Friday, March 2-3. Storms moving across the region will bring the risk of damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes, some possibly greater than EF-2 strength.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of the ArkLaTex region under a Level 4 of 5 threat for severe storms, covering over two million people including Shreveport, Louisiana, and Tyler, Texas. In this area, the most serious danger posed is the potential for destructive wind gusts and powerful tornadoes.
The storms are expected to form over northern and central Texas this afternoon, before pushing into east Texas around 9 or 10pm. Damaging wind gusts up to 70mph and perhaps a few tornadoes are possible as the line traverses the ArkLaTex through the mid to late evening hours, exiting the easternmost parishes around 1am.
Heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches is expected through Thursday night with the potential for localized higher amounts, leading to multiple localized flash flooding events.
Very heavy rain — up to 5 inches — is also possible with these severe storms, leading to a threat of flash flooding from Oklahoma to Ohio.
Behind the front, Friday will be sunny and breezy with highs in the middle 60s. Wind gusts may range from 30-40mph, but stronger gusts are a possibility. As the storm pushes northward, it will produce a swath of heavy snow from the Upper Midwest through New England Friday and Saturday, with significant sleet and freezing rain possible just south of the heaviest snow.
Outdoor furniture and things that could be blown away should be secured, as gusty winds of 30-40 mph are likely for all of us on Friday afternoon and evening, even if you don't get any strong thunderstorms.
Temperatures this evening will be warm and humid, dropping to around 70 degrees Fahrenheit. Temperatures during the night will be around the mid 60
0. “More heavy-duty storms headed for Southern Plains, Mississippi Valley” Yale Climate Connections, 1 Mar. 2023, https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2023/03/more-heavy-duty-storms-headed-for-southern-plains-mississippi-valley
1. “Over 100000 without power in Texas as severe storms threaten more tornadoes and flooding across South, barrel …” erienewsnow.com, 3 Mar. 2023, https://www.erienewsnow.com/story/48489125/over-100000-without-power-in-texas-as-severe-storms-threaten-more-tornadoes-and-flooding-across-south-barrel-toward-northeast
2. “A severe thunderstorm outbreak threatens 45 million across the South Thursday, packing damaging winds and possible strong tornadoes” CNN, 1 Mar. 2023, https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/01/weather/severe-weather-texas-louisiana-arkansas/index.html
3. “FIRST ALERT: Weather Alert Day for Friday Morning Severe Threat” WTOK, 3 Mar. 2023, https://www.wtok.com/2023/03/03/first-alert-weather-alert-day-friday-morning-severe-threat
4. “First Alert Weather Day: Severe weather threat continues into tonight” KSLA, 2 Mar. 2023, https://www.ksla.com/2023/03/02/first-alert-weather-day-severe-weather-expected-by-this-evening/
5. “South and Heartland brace for dangerous tornadoes” ABC News, 2 Mar. 2023, https://abcnews.go.com/US/flooding-rain-la-south-braces-tornadoes/story?id=97548217
6. “Thunderstorms to sweep through Piedmont Triad Friday, isolated tornado possible” WGHP FOX8 Greensboro, 2 Mar. 2023, https://myfox8.com/weather/thunderstorms-to-sweep-through-piedmont-triad-tomorrow-isolated-tornado-possible/
7. “South Carolina: Severe weather threat Friday” WYFF4 Greenville, 3 Mar. 2023, https://www.wyff4.com/article/south-carolina-severe-weather-threat-march/43157082
8. “Thunderstorms to roll through Piedmont Triad in the evening, potential for damaging winds” WGHP FOX8 Greensboro, 3 Mar. 2023, https://myfox8.com/news/north-carolina/piedmont-triad/thunderstorms-to-roll-through-piedmont-triad-in-the-evening-potential-for-damaging-winds/
9. “Severe Threat has now shift into early Friday morning.” WDAM, 2 Mar. 2023, https://www.wdam.com/2023/03/02/severe-threat-has-now-shift-into-early-friday-morning/